From three generations of Chinese real estate reform since December 2009 a new round of real estate regulation, has a huge impact on the market. At present, both the second-hand house or , whether chain or a year, whether it is sold or the price, compared to 2009 can be said to have repeatedly appeared greenish yellow. But for the market changes, we have different opinions, some people thought it was just short of the the good old days of real estate about to in the past.
author's humble opinion, the current round of real estate regulation and the resulting change in the situation did not change in general, it marks a real reform of the Chinese real estate into the people's livelihood as a guide to housing new security-focused change process of the second generation.
from the planned economic system to the commercial sale of welfare housing distribution system, China has experienced the first generation of real estate reform. from the simple to the present commercial real increase social protection efforts, the real estate industry is entering a second generation of reforms. Looking to the future, if the land system is able to change the direction of the government of the people, the Chinese real estate will be the third generation of reforms.
I will review from a planned economy to a market economy, from to the parallel market safeguard the single market, to build on the land market and the government of the people of China on the basis of three generations of real estate reform.
the first generation of Reform: From welfare housing to the commercial sale of
planned economy, all the control hands of the Government, housing construction and distribution is no exception. . After the reforms, in September 1980 the Office of Beijing Municipal Housing Commission built the first listing, the establishment of the Beijing Municipal Development Corporation, opened a real estate development in the prelude to .1982, the State Council house sales in the four pilot cities In 1987 to 1991, China's real estate market In 1991 began the initial stage, the State Council has approved a total of 24 provinces and cities of the housing reform program, indicates that China began to have real estate, but the main room was mainly for export and domestic welfare housing distribution system has not been canceled. The so-called export house, it is the real estate industry generated in the process towards a market economy, a historical phenomenon, refers to the large number of houses purchased by the non-Chinese mainland.
more to the south of China's reform first . In the planned economy era is still a strong real estate in the south of this new thing as the first bud. but then the real estate market is still only spark meaningful market across the country far not been formed. welfare housing in the background , the real estate investment market products also appeared to be quite small, the early industrial development, supply and demand is extremely unreasonable false prosperity, has led to , the Chinese real estate into the winter, but also in the throes of the increasing awareness of the need for market-oriented way.
1993 年 to 1997, the real estate market entered a small adjustment period. During this period, industry has no strong recovery, but the market is increasingly clear direction for the future of China real estate market full of quick start savings ideological basis.
1998, the sudden become Asian financial crisis of the booster housing reform, reform of China's first generation of real estate The curtain went up .1998 on July 3, with the start, China's real estate industry was put on his 10 years of rapid development of road. The notice clearly stated objectives of the reform are: to stop the housing distribution in kind, the progressive introduction of housing system; the establishment and improvement of affordable housing based multi- level urban housing supply system; development of housing finance, foster and standardize the housing market. notice there are two points worth noting, first, new channels, that is completely broken in the original premise of welfare housing distribution system, building to commercial transactions new market-oriented housing construction and distribution system, and stressed that the system is based on affordable housing as the main body. The second is the focus on supporting reform, housing reform, financial reform at the same time start to add the concept of the development of housing finance. That year, the People's Bank of China Administration of individual housing loans issued expressly agreed in the purchase of not less than 30% of the total price of housing as a down payment to buy a house to inspire residents of the purchase, it is this provision greatly promote the formation of the Chinese real estate market, but also a few years later became the fuse lit the National real estate.
reform of China's achievements of the first generation of real estate is self-evident. From 1997-2007, China Housing The annual growth rate of real estate have reached almost the same period more than twice the GDP growth rate of .1997, after the deduction of land acquisition costs of real estate development and investment share of GDP was 3.9% in 2007 has increased to 10.3% on the proportion of urban fixed asset investment is 21.5%. real estate development has greatly stimulated the growth of the national economy. According to the authoritative department has calculated that the impact of housing construction on about 10% of GDP, that housing construction increased by 10 percentage points, will be able to drive GDP growth by 1 percentage point; every 100 housing construction funds invested, you can create a related industries 170-220 yuan needs; for every 100 yuan of housing sales may be driven from 130 to 150 yuan in the demand for other goods . By this calculation, about 20-30% of China's GDP growth is driven by the real estate industry, real estate, so deservedly become China's said that the Chinese economy to grow fast each year, played a decisive role in real estate.
gold as real estate development, China has withstood the greatest in human history, the impact of the wave of urbanization. When people like Chung waves into the city, the Chinese people not only failed to reduce the per capita living space, but the average annual increase of 1 square meters per capita in 1978 the number of square meters, 18 square meters per capita in 1993 to the current nearly 30 square meters per capita; China is not only not uncommon in some countries in history by the shanty towns, slums, but continue to rise a seat, modern city. This is the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics Douglas. North in the complaints may be more, but there is no room to room, from Tongzilou to the garden house, the Chinese people really can live better and better.
second-generation reforms: house prices, and the uneven distribution of protection as the leading second-generation reforms
from the economic crisis, the aim of eliminating the first generation of China's real estate crisis from the beginning of reform with a strong Its purpose is to start with housing consumption to spur economic growth, the Government has not thought of, but not taken the initiative to take government in the housing sector must assume a public responsibility. As the bias caused by the Chinese real estate development.
first housing the first years of reform, the Government aims for growth, for the real estate macro control very loose. From 1999 to 2003, more than four years, the policy generally remain within the framework of a broad, basic self-regulation by the market , while the government initially set to affordable housing in the multi-level housing system in large real estate interests gradually been lured into the 8 years on, China's low-cost housing construction the total amount of funding only 70 billion, with annual demand for 50 billion of capital a far cry from the national total of low-cost housing Shiwupeizu down only 20 million. At present, guaranteeing 10 square meters and below the masses of families living close to four million low-income housing difficulties of the masses of national statistics about 10 million, meaning that more than 3,000 million people per capita housing area of 10 square meters or less. real estate in the end improve quality of life of the Chinese people, or are the people pushed to the cliff? in China has been divided on this issue, has been unable to reach consensus, the reform must be restarted.
gains across the board in the national property market overall situation, in 2003, on promoting the healthy development of the real estate market continued to notice commodity housing policy line kites, entered a rapid growth path.
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences under the Blue Book report, 1998-2003 national commodity price per square meter of housing increased by only 343 yuan. and to document the full implementation of the first 18 year 2004, one by one, the price per square meter the previous year jumped to 352 yuan. Pushing the prices of which also released in 2003 the central bank Ministry of Land Resources, Ministry of Supervision jointly issued the reduce the supply of real estate; the latter state-owned land use right to open the bidding, auction listing to sell the land the way and makes a substantial rise in prices is expected to form the whole of society, co-created the myth of price gains.
2003, when, price is about 4-5 times the average household income, more in line with the family can afford. But with rising property prices, house prices in some cities will soon break through the defense, even to the 14-15 times.
prices soaring, people sulked ultimately make beginning in 2005, the Government had to price stability as the starting point for policy formulation, has promulgated the notice, but unfortunately, due to control measures do not hit the nail on the head but the momentum of house prices worsen .2007 August, clearly the solution of the housing difficulties of low-income working families into the government public service functions. Since then, the protection of housing construction at all levels of government have put on the work plan and expenditure in arrangements.
2008, the Chinese economy suffered a global financial crisis impact experienced a less than The most difficult year for the economy has become China real estate the most crazy year, extremely strong property market in 2009, again contrary to all expectations. While China's economic success, the rise in the real estate bubble that became the target of the wheel is clearly not inclined to move on. And on the other hand, optimistic about the world economy in 2010, China's economic recovery was generally good (I judge it more compared with the mainstream view pessimistic), the recovery of the Chinese economy no longer bear the weight of soaring house prices. So, in late 2009, the Government began to implement to curb the real estate housing prices as the core of the intensive control, the key lies in the formal launch the second generation of the already identified housing reform, housing and security for both housing to meet the needs of different groups in particular social groups to appease the immediate underlying needs. general concern at home and abroad, the Government introduced the requirements rising too fast at the same time, before we see affordable housing policy is different from the the end of 2012, 15.4 million low-income housing to basically solve the housing problems of needy families, the equivalent of building housing on the basis of the Ministry of the original plan has doubled. Deputy Mayor in the 300 to Beijing meeting, the principal notified the city in 2010 after another supply of affordable housing programs In 2009 December 28, the Beijing Municipal Land Resources Bureau informed the development of the city's land bank in 2009 and the market supply of the scheduling situation and .2010 in 2010, Beijing will continue to increase in residential land in particular affordable housing land supply, the proposed area of supply of residential land will not be less than 2500 hectares, planned construction area of 3000 square meters and above, which will account for half of the area of affordable housing. If a large-scale affordable housing can be put in place, can be expected This will protect the interests of lower-middle class and of great significance to the stability of prices.
this point, the real estate direction of reform, in the decade left side line finally completed partial correction and return to the origin. transmigration re-start when , the difference is that house prices have been rare. At the same time, very clearly, the second generation of reforms does not negate the achievements of the first generation of reforms, but do not touch on a blank area of the first generation of reform the land system ---- , but in the second-generation reforms based on improved, the main purpose is to correct a simple one-sidedness of the commercialization of housing and instead start the housing security of the wheels, so that commercialization and protection of the wheel parallel to address needs of different sectors, in particular, appease low-income, calm public resentment. to say that China and even to some extent absorbed into the Singapore government is led housing supply model.
the third generation of reforms: a temporary solution but also to the Chinese economy has suffered permanent cure macro
control Real estate has long been a market full of policy, any policy will affect the real estate sign of trouble the healthy development of the property reform, a mix of opportunistic too many countries, therefore, regulation of real estate in the past will inevitably become a place on the chaos, a close to death to match supply and demand, in order to curb housing prices; on the other hand, the government will increase the land supply and accelerate the pace of housing development and sales, increase affordable housing efforts in order to enlarge the supply of the future to meet the market the huge demand. can be said that the government regulation on real estate in general graduated, the regulation of supply and demand balance is good ideas and measures, the second generation of real estate reform will achieve significant results. However, this approach still fails reach deep-seated problem of the land system, it can only play a role in stabilizing the real estate market, the prices fundamentally impossible to make more rational and, therefore, can not guarantee that the residents of China to live in larger, more comfortable and happy house. It's like Singapore, though the results of government-led indeed to the Home Ownership in Singapore's policy intention, but the Singaporeans living comfort and happiness is far from big countries in Europe and America can not be compared. In addition , because house prices are still high, will continue to increase the cost of farmers into the city, scholars such as Professor Paul paper estimated one million farmers therefore delay the potential employment opportunities can not become a reality, which effectively means the loss of efficiency. by the This can be seen, if confined to real estate development in Singapore land resources, the practice is a reasonable last resort, then the rich resources of the Chinese mainland, take the road of Singapore is really learning the wrong object. the second generation of reforms in China real estate should also continue to move forward, is to dig deep.
the long run, while maintaining a stable real estate, the most important thing is to cure mm can be predicted that China's real estate reform is the second generation should also be a breakthrough the limitations of reform, to the third generation of reforms, involving land reform bold.
a lot of people know that circulation before the reform, the share price is high because there is a Therefore, the supply has not let go. Once the implementation of the circulation, share prices plummeted. real estate also has a similar then as ; problem, the Government attitude is still the work of the State Council executive meeting stressed the ; prevail. But in reality, although the Government repeated demands, still not a total ban on the purchase of house property market enthusiasm. objectively to stabilize housing prices, the role of the city. There are statistics that Beijing is in the sales chart, a small property real estate accounting for about 18%. According to property rights theory: property rights are a set of rights, biodegradable ownership, use, possession, disposal rights and usufruct. Here, small property owners most of the property, the only missing part of the right of disposal, which is the transfer of rights. its price advantage is the lack of transfer of rights from the real estate market demand can be decomposed into Consumer demand and investment demand, small property can meet most of the objects of consumer demand, while investment demand is not met. As the price determined by supply and demand sides, thus stripping the investment needs of small property prices naturally more low, and its spread has also exposed the huge market of real estate speculation bubble.
present, China has 800 million farmers need to solve the employment and wealth issues. China, inexorable process of urbanization, so that farmers into the city, into the modern division of labor is the only way to get rich farmers. and lead farmers urban residents are not allowed now to buy house sites in rural areas, farmers or small residential property room, which leads to poor resource farmers this fact can not play any role in the economy. Therefore, the existing regulations and policies are mutually contradictory : not only to encourage farmers to venture, but also blocked the source of venture capital to farmers.
scholars (such as the Rural Development Institute Chinese Academy of Social researcher Dang Guoying) correctly pointed out that the is not uniform, does not meet the principles of market economy, the result is fair and benefits the two objectives are lost. of the solution small property, should seek to maintain a win-win pattern of interests. forced removal of the house property is do not meet this principle. put all the responsibility on to farmers or buyers, it is not objective. Therefore, the progressive realization of the large extent the realization of real estate in the market economy country roads, should be direct or indirect government of the people of the land, to ensure the normal circulation of the land. For example, the U.S. real estate market is well developed, sound system, all the land use with compensation in the policy to the extent permitted, land can be freely sold, leased or mortgaged. the government's management of private land mainly through registration fees and planning guidance. private land transactions completely private matter between the procedure is simple, after the two sides signed an agreement voluntarily, just to the Government provisions of the tax paid, the registration can be. the land sale price by the buyers and sellers based on the then estimated market value of the land, complete negotiations by the buyers and sellers, but also by the private valuation of the company to help the parties reach an agreement and complete the transaction. < br> Why do high prices in China? the most fundamental reason is that demand is excited at the same time, the government's monopoly on the supply of land caused by artificial effects of land hunger and panic effect, increasing the real estate market caused by speculation and supply and demand serious imbalance. the land system of non-market making China the so-called real estate name than in reality, the lack of basic property rights, as the person who does not wear pants. real estate reform to the point where today, a land of modern property rights system has become increasingly clear land should be an important direction of reform. Of course, this is a long way to go in the task, but it is clear that the direction is to establish clear property rights, and responsibilities clear and smooth circulation of the modern land ownership system. We know that land ownership in China has always been the most important issue, is so revolutionary period, the beginning of reform is so, it is also true. whether it is real estate reform, or reform the city, land ownership issues are unavoidable The.
solve the state-owned land to the government of the people from the direction of the mandatory conversion will be as , lack of housing land will not, so housing value system revaluation will make the real estate prices return to rational, crazy speculation and huge property bubble will be leveling off. Chinese people are expected to thoroughly improve the quality of life, At the same time greatly improving land use efficiency, and improve employment, accelerate the process of urbanization, economic growth in China to stimulate domestic demand access to new opportunities for reform of enormous benefit.
long-suffering real estate reform in China should then cross the river by feeling the stones are clearly different. We should have reason to believe that the Government will take effective measures, in the end the real estate reform, not only to achieve the ultimate delight in their homes. will be published in the
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